How to Calculate Your Coast FIRE Number

The Complete Step-by-Step Guide

5-minute read
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The Coast FIRE Formula

Coast FIRE Number = FV ÷ (1 + r)ⁿ

FV

Future Value

Your target retirement number (Annual Expenses × 25)

r

Return Rate

Expected annual return (typically 5-7%, inflation-adjusted)

n

Years

Years until retirement (Retirement Age - Current Age)

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4-Step Calculation Guide

Follow these steps to calculate your Coast FIRE number by hand:

1

Determine Your Target Retirement Number

Multiply your annual expenses by 25. This uses the 4% safe withdrawal rate rule.

Annual expenses: $48,000 → Target: $48,000 × 25 = $1,200,000

Why 25x? Because $1.2M × 4% = $48,000/year in retirement income.

2

Choose Your Expected Return Rate

Select a rate based on your investment strategy. Always use inflation-adjusted returns.

⚠️ Always use inflation-adjusted returns, not nominal.

7%

Mostly stocks, long time horizon

6%

Balanced portfolio

5%

Risk-averse, shorter horizon

3

Calculate Years Until Retirement

Subtract your current age from your target retirement age.

Current age: 32, Target: 65 → n = 65 - 32 = 33 years
4

Apply the Formula

Plug your values into the formula and calculate.

Coast # = $1,200,000 ÷ 1.07³³ = $1,200,000 ÷ 9.325 = $128,685
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Complete Worked Example

Let's walk through a complete calculation:

Alex

32 years old

Expenses

$48,000/year

Retirement

Age 65

Return Rate

7% real return

Calculation

FV = $48,000 × 25 = $1,200,000
r = 7% = 0.07
n = 65 - 32 = 33 years
Coast # = $1,200,000 ÷ (1.07)³³ = $128,685

Alex needs $128,685 invested today to Coast FIRE. If Alex has this amount, they can stop saving for retirement and let compound interest do the rest.

Verify with Our Calculator
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Second Example: The Power of Starting Young

Now compare Alex's numbers with a younger, more frugal saver:

Maya

28 years old

Expenses

$35,000/year

Retirement

Age 65

Return Rate

7% real return

Calculation

FV = $35,000 × 25 = $875,000
r = 7% = 0.07
n = 65 - 28 = 37 years
Coast # = $875,000 ÷ (1.07)³⁷ = $67,800

Maya only needs $67,800 — less than half of Alex's $128,685. Two factors create this gap: 4 extra compounding years and $13K lower annual expenses. Time and frugality are a powerful combination.

Alex (32, $48K expenses) → $128,685

💡 Starting just 4 years earlier with moderate expenses cuts your Coast FIRE number by 47%.

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How Return Rate Changes Your Number

Your Coast FIRE number is highly sensitive to the return rate assumption. Here's how a $1.2M retirement target looks across different rates and starting ages:

Age 2540 years to 65

5%

$170,400

6%

$116,700

7%

$80,200

Age 3035 years to 65

5%

$217,500

6%

$156,000

7%

$112,500

Age 3530 years to 65

5%

$277,600

6%

$208,800

7%

$157,700

Age 4025 years to 65

5%

$354,200

6%

$279,500

7%

$221,300

💡 A 35-year-old using 5% needs $277K — nearly double the $158K needed at 7%. If you're uncertain, plan for the conservative rate and celebrate if markets outperform.

All figures assume $1.2M retirement target and retiring at 65. Rates are real (inflation-adjusted).

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Coast FIRE Numbers by Age & Goal

Quick reference: How much you need based on your age and target.

Age 2540 years to 65

$1M Goal

$67,000

$1.5M Goal

$100,000

$2M Goal

$134,000

Age 3035 years to 65

$1M Goal

$94,000

$1.5M Goal

$141,000

$2M Goal

$188,000

Age 3530 years to 65

$1M Goal

$131,000

$1.5M Goal

$197,000

$2M Goal

$262,000

Age 4025 years to 65

$1M Goal

$184,000

$1.5M Goal

$276,000

$2M Goal

$368,000

Age 4520 years to 65

$1M Goal

$258,000

$1.5M Goal

$387,000

$2M Goal

$516,000

Age 5015 years to 65

$1M Goal

$362,000

$1.5M Goal

$543,000

$2M Goal

$724,000

Assumes 7% real return, retiring at age 65.

Find Your Exact Number
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Understanding the Key Variables

Choosing Your Target Number (The 25x Rule)

The 25x rule comes from the 4% safe withdrawal rate. If you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio annually without running out of money, you need 25 times your annual expenses saved.

If you spend $40,000/year → Target = $1,000,000. If you spend $60,000/year → Target = $1,500,000.

Based on the Trinity Study (1998) and Bengen's original 1994 research: Trinity Study , Bengen (1994)

What Return Rate Should You Use?

The S&P 500 has historically returned about 10% nominally, or roughly 7% after inflation. However, future returns are uncertain. Here's how to choose:

S&P 500 historical data (1926-2023): Investopedia

  • 7% — Historically reasonable for mostly-stock portfolios
  • 6% — More conservative, accounts for fees and lower-growth periods
  • 5% — Very conservative, adds a safety margin (Recommended for 2026 assumptions)

💡 The lower the rate you assume, the higher your Coast FIRE number—but also the more margin of safety you have.

How Retirement Age Affects Your Number

Each additional year until retirement significantly reduces your Coast FIRE number. Time is your greatest asset in compound growth.

Retiring at 65 vs 55 could cut your Coast FIRE number by 50% or more.

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5 Common Calculation Mistakes to Avoid

1

Using nominal returns instead of real returns

❌ Overstates growth, leads to undersaving

✅ Use 7% real return, not 10% nominal

2

Wrong years calculation

❌ Using birth year or wrong formula

✅ n = Retirement Age - Current Age

3

Overestimating return rate

❌ 10%+ is unrealistic long-term

✅ Stick to 5-7% for conservatism

4

Ignoring inflation in target

❌ Target too low in future dollars

✅ Use today's dollars with real returns

5

Forgetting other retirement income

❌ Oversaving when pension/Social Security exists

✅ Subtract expected benefits from target

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Special Scenarios

Calculating with a Pension or Social Security

A guaranteed pension or Social Security benefit heavily reduces how much you need from your investments:

Adjusted Target = (Annual Expenses - Expected Pension) × 25

Expenses $48K - Pension $18K = $30K gap → Target = $750K (not $1.2M!)

Calculate with Pension

Calculating for Couples

Couples can calculate jointly or separately:

  • Shared expenses mean lower per-person targets
  • Combined savings accelerates reaching Coast FIRE
  • Diversified careers reduce risk
Try Couples Calculator

Frequently Asked Questions

Historically, yes. The S&P 500 has averaged about 10% nominal or 7% real (after inflation) since 1926. However, future returns may differ. Using 5-6% is more conservative and gives you a safety buffer.

"The best time to start was yesterday. The second best time is now."

Start your Coast FIRE journey today 🚀